If you know a keyword's search volume and your ranking position, Google's click-through rate curve tells you roughly how much traffic to expect. This used to be simple; AI Overviews, People Also Ask, and shopping panels have made it more nuanced. Here's the 2026 CTR data you actually need.
2026 CTR by position
| Position | Desktop CTR | Mobile CTR | With AI Overview |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.7% | 27.5% | 18.4% |
| 2 | 17.4% | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| 3 | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.8% |
| 4 | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| 5 | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| 6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| 7 | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| 8 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| 9 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| 10 | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
Source: blended 2025–2026 data from public AWR, Advanced Web Ranking, and Google Search Console industry reports.
Why the curve is steeper than it used to be
In 2018 a #1 ranking got you 36% CTR. In 2026 it's ~31% on average and 18% if your query triggers AI Overviews. Reasons:
- More SERP features — People Also Ask, videos, shopping, knowledge panels push organic #1 further down the screen.
- AI Overviews — answer info queries directly, removing the click.
- Zero-click dominance — >60% of Google sessions in 2026 end without clicking any organic result.
- Mobile weight — mobile SERPs show fewer results per viewport, compressing CTR onto position 1.
Traffic estimate formula
Example: a keyword with 20,000 monthly searches, you rank #3, query triggers AI Overview → 20,000 × 11% × 0.62 = ~1,364 clicks/month.
CTR by query intent
Info queries bleed the most to AI Overviews. Commercial and transactional queries are holding up because they still need a click to complete the action.
| Query type | Position 1 CTR | AI Overview impact |
|---|---|---|
| Informational ("what is X?") | 22% | −40% to −55% |
| Commercial ("best X for Y") | 29% | −10% to −20% |
| Transactional ("buy X", "X pricing") | 38% | −5% to −10% |
| Navigational ("login X", "X reviews") | 45% | ~0% |
| Local ("X near me") | 28% | Map pack dominates — organic #1 more like pos 4 |
What moves your CTR above the curve
- Title optimization. Title tags matching the query's exact words earn 2–5 percentage points above average.
- Meta description clarity. Answers the query preview-style; increases CTR 10–15%.
- Rich results. FAQ, review, and video schema markup capture extra CTR and SERP real estate.
- Brand recognition. Users recognize "Wikipedia", "Amazon" and click even from position 3.
What kills your CTR
- Title tag truncated past 60 characters.
- Meta description missing or generic.
- Query intent mismatch (commercial title on informational query).
- Multiple brand/nav searchers ahead of you for a generic term.
Measuring your own CTR
Google Search Console shows exact CTR by query by position. Filter to "Last 28 days", sort by impressions, look at queries where:
- Position is 1–5 but CTR is below the curve → title/meta optimization opportunity.
- Position is 6–20 → content refresh opportunity (see our organic-growth playbook).
Frequently asked questions
What is the average Google CTR for position 1?
28–32% in 2026 without AI Overviews; 15–20% when AI Overviews fire. Position 2 averages 15–18%, position 10 around 2.5%.
Did AI Overviews kill organic CTR?
For informational queries, yes — CTR on position 1 drops 30–50% when AI Overview fires. Commercial/transactional queries are less affected.
How much traffic will a position 3 ranking get me?
Volume × 10% (position-3 CTR). 10,000 searches × 10% = ~1,000 clicks. Subtract 30% if AI Overview triggers.